El Niño 2026 · near real time

The history

76 years of ONI · event ranking

Since 1950 there have been 23 El Niño episodes by CPC’s definition (ONI ≥ +0.5 °C for five consecutive seasons). Only three exceeded +2 °C before this one: 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2015–16 — the "super El Niños". Here you can see where 2026 fits.

ONI month by month, 1950 to today

Each bar is a 3-month running season, colored by class. Ember for El Niño; blue for La Niña.

01Aligned trajectories

ONI of the biggest events, from the January of onset to the end of the following year

Strong events are born in the southern autumn, grow through the winter and peak between November and January. The comparison shows whether 2026 is ahead of or behind the earlier ones.

02Ranking

Every El Niño since 1950 (ONI)

Sorted by ONI peak. The ongoing event is highlighted with its latest value — the peak has not arrived yet.

#EventPeakPeak seasonDurationClass
12015–16 +2.6NDJ 201520 seas. Exceptional
21997–98 +2.4NDJ 199712 seas. Very strong
31982–83 +2.1DJF 198314 seas. Very strong
42023–24 +2.0NDJ 202311 seas. Strong
51972–73 +1.8OND 197210 seas. Strong
61965–66 +1.8OND 196510 seas. Strong
72026–27 ongoing +1.8JJA 20263 seas. Strong
81957–58 +1.7DJF 195814 seas. Strong
91991–92 +1.5DJF 199213 seas. Strong
102009–10 +1.5NDJ 20099 seas. Strong
111987–88 +1.5ASO 198717 seas. Moderate
121963–64 +1.2OND 19638 seas. Moderate
132002–03 +1.2OND 20028 seas. Moderate
142018–19 +1.1NDJ 201810 seas. Moderate
151951–52 +1.0SON 19518 seas. Moderate
161968–69 +1.0DJF 19698 seas. Weak
171994–95 +1.0NDJ 19945 seas. Weak
182006–07 +0.9OND 20065 seas. Weak
191976–77 +0.8NDJ 19766 seas. Weak
201977–78 +0.8OND 19775 seas. Weak
211953–54 +0.8SON 19539 seas. Weak
222019–20 +0.8NDJ 20196 seas. Weak
232004–05 +0.7NDJ 20047 seas. Weak

By RONI (relative index)

RONI removes the warming of the whole tropics. Recent events "lose" intensity because part of the heat belongs to the whole ocean, not to El Niño. Top 12.

#EventPeakSeason
11982–83+2.40DJF 1983
21997–98+2.28NDJ 1997
32015–16+2.25NDJ 2015
41991–92+2.12DJF 1992
51965–66+1.99OND 1965
61972–73+1.97OND 1972
71957–58+1.89DJF 1958
82009–10+1.50NDJ 2009
91986–87+1.46DJF 1987
102023–24+1.42OND 2023
112026–27+1.36JJA 2026
122002–03+1.33OND 2002

On the daily scale (OISST, since 1981)

Daily Niño 3.4 maximum and how many days each event spent above the thresholds.

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