El Niño 2026 · near real time

In Brazil

rain · fire · rivers

El Niño disturbs the atmospheric circulation over South America. The classic pattern: a drier North and Northeast (the Amazon and the semi-arid region lose rain, and fire finds dry forest), a wetter South (floods in Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, especially in spring) and a hotter Southeast and Center-West. No year matches the pattern exactly, and the list below shows what is actually happening.

Accumulated rainfall relative to normal

Sum of daily rainfall (Open-Meteo: ERA5 and operational analyses) over the chosen window, compared with the 1991–2020 normal for the same period at the same point.

City by city

Rainfall month by month

Monthly totals for 2026 against the 1991–2020 normal and the same month in 2025.

01Fire

Cumulative fire hotspots in the year

INPE reference satellite (AQUA, afternoon pass) — the only series comparable across years. Gray: 2003–2025. Highlighted: 2024 (recent record, after the 2023–24 El Niño), 2015 and the current year.

02Rivers

Negro River at Manaus

Negro River stage at the Port of Manaus (ANA telemetry). Extreme Amazon droughts come with strong El Niños.

ANA · telemetry of station 14990000 · daily median

Guaíba Lake at Porto Alegre

Guaíba level at Cais Mauá (ANA telemetry). Southern Brazil tends to get above-normal rain in El Niño years. The telemetry went down during the historic May 2024 flood (peak above 5.3 m), which is missing here.

ANA · telemetry of station 87450004 · daily median